This week in injuries: Yankees first baseman Luke Voit is dealing with a hernia that could very well push him to have surgery that would likely knock him out until mid-September. Meanwhile, Rays outfielder Tommy Pham returned to action only a few days after suffering a sprained hand, a course of action that makes him vulnerable to re-injury. Similarly, Baltimore pitcher John Means is also targeted for a potentially premature return from an arm injury.
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Before we get to these hobbled players, and more, here’s some terminology you should know:
“Optimal Recovery Time” is essentially how long you want the player to stay out until he is fully healed. If he comes back too early, he runs the risk of aggravation or could just perform at a lower level.
(NOTE: we tend to get very specific with these dates because of our proprietary algorithm, which includes overall injury history and recovery, player history, input and research from actual doctors, and many other factors.)
“Injury Risk Category” gives you the likelihood of the player getting injured. IRC doesn’t just apply to the injured body part — it covers everything from aggravating an existing injury, suffering a new but related injury (perhaps due to overcompensating) or suffering a completely new injury.
A player who is currently hurt will have a higher IRC than most players, but there are plenty of players with a high IRC because they have a concerning history of injuries even though they are currently “healthy.” A player who is currently hurt will also see their IRC slowly improve as they approach their Optimal Recovery Time (ORT) because they become less and less likely to aggravate the injury.
“Health Performance Factor” is, in simple terms, the percentage at which a player will perform if he played today. That number will change as he gets closer to ORT. For instance, if Mike Trout tried to play today, you could expect him to perform at 25 percent of his regular self. In two weeks, that number may be far higher, as he recovers.
Alright, let’s make the rounds…
Luke Voit 1B, Yankees: sports hernia (grade 3)
- Placed on IL, could need surgery
- Options include treating the injury on a day-to-day basis or surgery
- Also landed on the IL in early July with an abdominal strain — could be a correlation
- Manager Aaron Boone said this is something that may have been there for awhile (before abdominal strain)
- Expect surgery, especially because this is something that has been lingering for a while and recently got worse
- If he does undergo surgery, it’s realistic for him to return to the lineup in late September
- Optimal Recovery Time: 6 weeks (HTR: September 15)
- IRC: High (71%)
- HPF: Poor (1%)
Nick Markakis OF, Braves: left wrist fracture (grade 3)
- Suffered a fractured wrist when he was hit by a pitch last week
- He doesn’t need surgery and could return before the season is over
- Whenever he returns his power at the plate won’t be back to normal, that won’t happen until he has the offseason to focus on his upper body strength
- Optimal Recovery Time: 8 weeks (Healthy to Return: September 25)
- Injury Risk: High (47%)
- Health Performance Factor: Poor (12%)
Yoan Moncada INF, White Sox: right hamstring strain (grade 1)
- MRI showed a grade 1 strain
- He needs to miss at least two weeks so the hamstring can fully heal and this doesn’t become a lingering problem
- Battled minor leg soreness, back and knee injuries earlier this season
- Also landed on IL last season with a left hamstring strain — he initially tried to play through it but was placed on IL a few weeks later
- Optimal Recovery Time: 2 weeks (Healthy to Return: August 14)
- Injury Risk: Elevated (20%)
- Health Performance Factor: Below Average (62%)
David Robertson RP, Phillies: surgery on flexor tendon (grade 4)
- Hasn’t pitched since April due to a flexor strain, injury got worse and now he needs surgery
- Will undergo season-ending surgery to repair flexor tendon and could also need Tommy John surgery
- If there isn’t damage to the UCL he could return mid-way through the 2020 season
- If he also needs Tommy John surgery to repair the UCL in addition to the flexor tendon, he would miss the entire 2020 season
- At 34 years old, it would be unlikely that he can return from Tommy John surgery in two years and continue to have success at the major league level
- Injury Risk: High (75%)
- Health Performance Factor: Poor (2%)
Tommy Pham OF, Rays: right hand sprain (grade 1)
- Missed the last few days with a mild right hand sprain, back in the lineup on Thursday
- He’s returning too soon — even a mild sprain needs a few weeks to heal
- He is putting himself at risk of aggravating his hand sprain or suffering a compensatory injury
- It will be painful to grip the bat, and that could cause him to alter his mechanics, which is always concerning
- Optimal Recovery Time: 2 weeks (Healthy to Return: August 11)
- Injury Risk: High (42%)
- Health Performance Factor: Poor (37%)
Alex Dickerson OF, Giants: oblique strain (grade 1)
- Scratched from the lineup on Wednesday and underwent an MRI due to pain in his side
- Diagnosed with an oblique strain and placed on IL
- Team believes this is mild, so he should be ready to return in a few weeks
- Oblique strains sap power, so even when he returns it could take him a few more weeks to get that back
- Oblique injuries are highly recurrent injuries and are easily aggravated when swinging the bat, so it’s important to not rush recovery
- This injury is likely related to his back spasms
- Optimal Recovery Time: 2 weeks (Healthy to Return: August 14)
- Injury Risk: High (29%)
- Health Performance Factor: Below Average (61%)
John Means SP, Orioles: left biceps/shoulder injury (grade 1)
- Felt pain in his biceps during a start last Wednesday and placed on IL
- Underwent an MRI, which showed no structural damage, just inflammation to his rotator cuff
- It sounds like he’s dealing with some pain around both the biceps and shoulder, which are connected
- Inflammation can be very painful, but with proper rest and treatment it can heal in a few weeks if mild
- He is expected to return to the rotation early next week, soon after he’s first eligible, but that’s too soon
- Optimal Recovery Time: 2 weeks (Healthy to Return: August 9)
- Injury Risk: Elevated (14%)
- Health Performance Factor: Below Average (59%)
Ramon Laureano OF, Athletics: right shin stress reaction (grade 3)
- Expected to miss around four weeks with a stress reaction in his shin
- A stress reaction isn’t quite as severe as a fracture, but it can lead to one if it isn’t treated properly and given enough time to heal (the bone is much weaker, it starts to swell but hasn’t cracked yet)
- The team hasn’t provided a timetable to return, but they have said it will be more than the minimum 10 days after placing him on IL
- It’s especially painful any time he has to stop quickly, so it affects him both in the field and running the bases
- He said his leg problem started back in March when the team played in Japan — it continued to bother him and recently got worse
- Optimal Recovery Time: 6 weeks (Healthy to Return: September 15)
- Injury Risk: High (35%)
- Health Performance Factor: Poor (20%)
(Top photo: Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
Virginia Zakas is the managing director of Inside Injuries, which predicts the impact of injuries on player performance by using data analytics, medical expertise and statistical modeling. Inside Injuries provides credible, easy-to-understand, and actionable data to consumers, sports media companies, fantasy sports platform enterprises and gaming industry companies. Follow Virginia Zakas, on Twitter @insideinjuries
