Baseball America released its latest top 100 prospect rankings Wednesday, and the coveted No. 1 spot no longer belongs to the Orioles’ Jackson Holliday.
Baltimore’s No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 MLB draft held the top position in January when Baseball America released its initial preseason list, but Holliday has since been leapfrogged by Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes.
Contrary to Holliday’s disappointing start in the major leagues, in which he went 2-for-34 in 10 games, Skenes exceeded similarly lofty expectations after being called up to make his big league debut May 11. The first selection in last year’s draft out of LSU has started five games and struck out 38 batters with a 3.00 ERA. He struck out seven in a row to open his second outing, with Baseball America noting that Skenes has “pitched like a front-of-the-rotation starter from the moment he made his MLB debut.”
Skenes has pitched 27 major league innings after earning the win against the Dodgers on Wednesday. Eclipsing 50 would revoke his prospect status, meaning Holliday could be back to No. 1 sooner rather than later.
Of the ever-so-slight demotion to second-best prospect in baseball, Baseball America writes: “Holliday’s MLB debut was rough, but his long-term potential remains the same. Even if he didn’t make it back to Baltimore until next year, he’d be one of the youngest players in the majors, and he has batting crown potential.”
Holliday, 20, is still the lone top-five selection from his draft class to advance past High-A ball, and he has shown significant improvement since returning to Triple-A Norfolk.
He also wasn’t the only Orioles prospect to bounce around Baseball America’s latest rankings.
Coby Mayo leaped eight spots from No. 25 to No. 17 despite suffering a fractured rib last month while chasing a pop up into the third base dugout. However, executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said Mayo’s timeline for return is in weeks “rather than anything beyond that.”
Before the injury, Mayo, 22, had been hitting .291 with an International League-leading 13 homers and 37 RBIs over 42 games. If not for the bad break, a promotion for the third baseman might have been on the horizon.
Tailing right behind Mayo on the top 100 list is catcher Samuel Basallo. Unlike Mayo, Basallo dropped from No. 10 to No. 18. Baseball America pointed to a preseason stress fracture in the catcher’s right elbow that quieted his early season output in Double-A Bowie, as the 19-year-old international signing from the Dominican Republic opened the year solely as the designated hitter.
“His power potential remains top-tier,” according to Baseball America. Basallo is slashing .284/.335/.442 in 49 games with eight home runs, six doubles, 26 RBIs, 43 strikeouts and 14 walks.
Outfielder Heston Kjerstad was ranked No. 41 at the outset of the season. The No. 2 pick in the 2020 draft began the year in Norfolk, was recalled by the Orioles in late April and played sporadically over a three-week period before heading back to Triple-A.
Baseball America called that “a curse of being an Orioles prospect.”
Since arriving back in Norfolk, the now 23rd-best prospect in baseball has continued his dominance at the plate. The 25-year-old outfielder’s 1.077 OPS is the highest among all qualified Triple-A players and his 14 homers — including a walk-off grand slam two weeks ago — are tied for the most by any minor leaguer in Double-A or higher.
Cade Povich is ranked the lowest of the group but has the potential to be the next Orioles prospect to trot onto a big league field. The left-handed pitcher, ranked No. 99 by Baseball America, joined the Orioles’ taxi squad ahead of Wednesday night’s game against the Toronto Blue Jays and will start Thursday to make his MLB debut.
Povich, acquired from the Minnesota Twins in the Jorge López trade in August 2022, narrowly cracked the league-wide list but is Baltimore’s top starting pitching prospect. He struck out 75 batters compared with 21 walks with a 3.18 ERA in 56 2/3 innings over 11 starts with Norfolk.
Elias recently said that Povich, 24, is “a guy who’s on the tip of our tongues right now” amid internal dialogue about how to best handle the Orioles’ loaded June schedule with only one day off. A move like this “became a daily conversation,” Elias said.
Baseball America writes that “Povich only sits 91-92 mph with above-average ride on his fastball with four secondary pitches he commands.” He’s one of seven left-handers in the top 100 and is the next man up for an Orioles pitching rotation that just endured season-ending elbow injuries to John Means and Tyler Wells.
If Povich were to pitch well, he could reignite the conversation of the Orioles shifting to a six-man rotation amid the seemingly nonstop stretch of June games, something manager Brandon Hyde has mentioned repeatedly.
